There is a saying that China will grow old before she grows rich. The reality is that China may go gray before she goes green. Anyone living in Beijing today would feel the immensity of the air pollution, which is why China is putting so much effort in the current negotiations on climate change in Paris this month. 
Paris was of course the scene of the terrorist attack that shocked Europe, if not the world, signaling an escalation in the war on terror. But the 21st meeting of the Conference of Parties to the 1992 U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change is a historic attempt to achieve global consensus on the threat of climate change. Specifically, COP21, which ends tomorrow, seeks to get a legally binding agreement to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.
There are encouraging signs that some kind of agreement will be reached, although the extent of legal commitment will not satisfy everyone. The latest draft agreement that I saw (more transparent than the Trans-Pacific Partnership process where the draft agreement was published after the signing) had lots of drafting options, but my guess is that national concerns over difficulties of implementation will mean that the final agreement will be watered down.
Global negotiations always start with the highest noble aspirations, ending up with the lowest common agreed position. But an agreement even on key principles would be a major achievement indeed — an important signal to the end of a confusing year and some hope that the war on pollution could be just as important as the war on terror.
How is Asia going to be able to achieve its ambition of greening?
Two excellent new books come with different perspectives of how this can be achieved. Former South China Morning Post editor Mark Clifford and currently executive director of the Asia Business Council has written a great book on “The Greening of Asia.” He eloquently points out that the Asian Miracle was achieved on the back of cheap labor and environmental expense. China is already the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, with Indonesian haze also a major problem, as everyone in Singapore and Malaysia can testify. Because of their population size, five countries — China, India, Indonesia, the U.S. and Russia — account for half of the global annual GHG emissions, which will only increase as Indian and Indonesian growth accelerate in the coming years.
There are of course three parties to blame for the current climate warming. The first is consumer lifestyle; the second business production; and last but not least, bad government policies and taxes and subsidies that encourage resource wastage and carbon emission.
Urbanization and higher incomes account for the bulk of the increase in carbon emissions, because most cities generate higher incomes with larger consumption of energy and resources. As going forward, most megacities will be in Asia, the solution to climate change will rest largely with Asian solutions. For example, China’s pollution problems will not be solved if every family has a car. Currently only one in four has a car. China and India cannot afford to go down the path of resource consumption that the West went through during the Industrial Revolution without serious damage to the environment.
Lifestyles can change, but as Mark Clifford rightly points out, business can point the way, since they can help educate the public on what is green and good. The Dutch discovered that if you put the electric meter near the main door you look at every day, you will save 30 percent more on your electricity bill than if you tuck the meter in the closet.
Business in Asia is beginning to realize that green is not just a cost center, but good for business opportunities. Mark tells great tales about visionary business leaders in Asia that show the way on corporate social responsibility and making money from it.
Macquarie University professor John Mathews tells another story of the “Greening of Capitalism: How Asia is Driving the Next Great Transformation.” His narrative is more technical, going back to the basics of sustainable economics of fossil fuel-driven industrialization towards a new transformation to a circular economy (where resources and energy are recycled).
As a keen observer of how China is transforming its industrial model from fossil fuels toward solar and alternative energies, professor Mathews addresses the next great transformation. India, China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nation’s move into the industrial age involves ten times the speed, a hundred times the people and a thousand times the energy intensity of the Western Industrial Revolution.
The scale and intensity of that journey is mind-boggling.
Governments can do a lot to help make the damage to the environment from this transformation more tolerable and less risky. Getting the emissions standards and the measurement of energy efficiency and pollution more transparent is the first step. Enforcing even the current legislation would also help a lot. Just cutting the gasoline subsidies in Indonesia and Malaysia not only helped cut down on consumption, but also reduced the fiscal deficits. Allowing civil society to take the lead in self-help and widespread education about the need to combat pollution and change lifestyles will generate a winning partnership between the consumer, business and the state towards a green, inclusive society, rather than a black, conflicted mess.
There is considerable hope about the greening of Asia, as the more advanced economies of Japan, Korea and Singapore already have proved that with the right political will, it is possible to deal with pollution and energy efficiency questions. Sharing that technology and know-how will accelerate the journey towards greening faster and smoother.
Which is why Paris COP21 is so important a signal, not just to the world, but particularly to Asia. If Asia cannot solve its journey to a green, open and inclusive society, the world will go up in flames. The war on pollution is only just beginning.
By Andrew Sheng
Andrew Sheng is an adjunct professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing and the University of Malaya. He was formerly the chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. — Ed.
(Asia News Network)
