Korea’s current account surplus jumped by 41.9 percent from a year earlier to $10.3 billion in March, stretching the record for a consecutive monthly surplus to 37 months. The Bank of Korea predicts the country’s current account surplus for this year will reach a record annual high of $96 billion. In addition to a continued increase in trade surplus, the rising inflow of foreign capital into local equity markets is behind the record performance.
A rise in the current account surplus is generally deemed to be good for an economy as it could serve to guard it against turbulence in external markets. An excessive surplus, however, might cause a country’s currency to appreciate sharply, hurting the price competitiveness of its exports.
Korean companies are increasingly facing this kind of trouble, raising the need for measures to help ease their difficulties.
The value of the Korean won has remained relatively strong compared to other major currencies, particularly the Japanese yen. Since 2013, the yen has depreciated by 27.4 percent against the U.S. dollar while the won has lost its value against the greenback by a mere 1.7 percent.
For financial authorities in Seoul, it is no longer an option to step in to keep the won’s value lower due to heightened international oversight over moves that could be seen as currency manipulation. Recent U.S. Senate legislation would allow the U.S. administration to treat currency devaluation as a subsidy and apply retaliatory duties on imports from the country concerned.
In this regard, it is understandable and positive for the government to consider ways to channel accumulated dollars abroad by boosting overseas investment by individuals, corporations and institutional funds.
An economic management plan for the second half, which will be unveiled next month, is expected to include a package of measures designed to facilitate investment in foreign stocks, offshore mergers and acquisitions and imports of capital goods.
It would be ideal for Korean individual and institutional investors to gain money abroad at a time when they find less opportunities for lucrative investment at home. More tax incentives need to be offered to encourage outbound investment. Korea’s investment in foreign securities remained at $206.3 billion at the end of last year, just a third of the sum of foreign capital invested in Korean stocks.
Well-conceived M&As, especially acquisitions of innovative start-ups abroad, would help strengthen the global competitiveness of Korean enterprises over the long term. It may be proper to increase investment in overseas resources development projects now, as global commodities prices remain low.
Consideration may be given to providing intermediary and small manufacturers with more loans to help them import sophisticated equipment needed to strengthen their competitiveness.
What policymakers and investors should keep in mind is that boosting overseas investment requires a prudent approach from a longer viewpoint. Caution may have to be taken against possible risks from a sharp increase in investment abroad. It will also take time to secure a sufficient pool of investment experts who can be entrusted with dealing in foreign equities and bonds.
The more fundamental way to manage the current account surplus may be to invigorate domestic consumption. What is behind Korea’s continued trade surplus is the fact that its imports have decreased faster than exports amid a prolonged slump in local demand growth.
It can never be overstated that stronger efforts should be made to create more jobs through drastic deregulation ― particularly in the service sector ― and implement other measures to help increase household income.
