On Polymarket, the world’s largest cryptocurrency-based betting platform, a bet on the possibility of President Yoon Suk Yeol stepping down within this month is drawing attention. Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform launched in 2020, where investors can earn profits by predicting results on various topics such as global events, election results, cryptocurrency prices, and popular culture. In particular, the platform is drawing attention in that it reflects the market’s collective intelligence surrounding the results and quantifies the possibility of specific events.
As of the 4th, about seven bets were opened on the Polymarket that dealt with topics related to the emergency martial law crisis. Among them, the question of “Will President Yoon step down from the presidency in 2024?” was bet worth about $865,763, and as of this afternoon, the possibility of President Yoon stepping down was 44%.
Another betting topic, “Will President Yoon be impeached by Friday?” is a bet worth about $233,376, with an 80% chance of being impeached by Friday.
Major foreign media analyzed that President Yoon’s political position is seriously shaking.
The Economist reported, “President Yoon attempted to protect the regime, but rather made his downfall almost certain.” He also observed, “If he does not resign on his own, the National Assembly is likely to impeach him.”
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also assessed that President Yoon’s recent decision was a grave political mistake. “President Yoon, whose approval rating has recently fallen below 20 percent, is now facing serious challenges to his political future,” the WSJ said.
As bets on the possibility of President Yoon’s resignation surge and related discussions spread around the world, attention is being paid to what political repercussions the situation will have at home and abroad.
EJ SONG
US ASIA JOURNAL
