It appears likely that the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will attend the May ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of Victory Day, a day celebrating the former Soviet Union’s victory over the Nazis, in Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Wednesday that Moscow had received a positive signal regarding the invitation extended in November when Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Kim’s special envoy Choe Ryong-hae. Lavrov said that several dozen invitations to the ceremony on May 9 were sent out and that 20 guests had already confirmed their attendance.
If Kim does indeed attend, it would be his first trip ever outside the country since taking the helm of the reclusive state in 2011. More significantly, it would mark his debut on the diplomatic stage in a multilateral platform.
Skeptics note that Kim may decide to cancel at the last minute, and that this “positive signal” of his attendance is a show. At a time when he is under international condemnation over his regime’s systematic violation of human rights and faces the possibility, although remote, of being brought before the International Criminal Court, Kim will find it uncomfortable to be among other world leaders. In fact, he could be outright snubbed by the other leaders.
On the other hand, Kim may indeed proceed with the Moscow visit, compelled by the need to forge closer ties with Moscow, especially at a time when its traditional ally is being ostracized by the international community over the Ukraine crisis.
As ties with China, its other traditional patron, chilled somewhat in the aftermath of stalled denuclearization talks and the purge of Kim’s uncle Jang Song-thaek, Kim is seen as looking toward Moscow for more support. If Kim does show up in the Russian capital, it will be the first time that a North Korean leader visits Moscow before Beijing. On Thursday, China gave its tacit approval of the May visit, saying it believed such engagements between the two countries were conducive to regional peace and stability.
If both Kim and President Park Geun-hye do go to Moscow for the Victory Day ceremony and get to meet each other, even in a multilateral setting, Moscow would consider the occasion a demonstration of its validity as an international power player.
The Blue House said that it had not yet decided on the Moscow visit, noting that her schedule for May had not been fixed and that there were competing itineraries. The Moscow invitation puts Park in a quandary. Park needs Russia’s cooperation to realize her Eurasia initiative, which includes a railroad that runs through Eurasia and ends in South Korea, yet she must also act in concert with the U.S., Korea’s staunch ally, which is unlikely to attend the Moscow event.
Then there is the reality of Park meeting Kim. Conditions may not be ready by May for a meeting between the two. A multilateral meeting may be awkward, and even more so a bilateral meeting when they are not really ready for one. Park may want to avoid a situation where the two will be forced to meet.
Another concern is the possibility of being upstaged by the North Korean leader. The Moscow trip will mark the international debut of the young man and he will be under great international scrutiny.
The Blue House should carefully mull over the invitation and come to a creative solution that maximizes Korea’s interests.
