As Taiwan’s presidential election, which will be held on the 13th, is just around the corner, the world’s eyes are on Taiwan. This is because, depending on the results of the Taiwan presidential election, which is conducted as a proxy war between the U.S. and China, the game could change not only geopolitically but also geo-economically in the U.S.-China strategic competition. “Depending on who wins among the candidates of the pro-U.S., the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the pro-China and cross-strait (China and Taiwan) cooperation Nationalist Party (KMT) Heo Woo-yu,” he said. “In terms of economics, it will have an impact on whether economic cooperation between the two sides will be restored or whether decoupling (the separation of supply chains between the U.S. and China) will accelerate.” In particular, attention is being paid to the realignment of the supply chain of the global semiconductor industry among the major changes caused by the results of the Taiwan election. This is because Taiwan is a key production base for the world’s semiconductors, which has TSMC, the world’s largest foundry (consignment production of semiconductors). Professor Koo predicted, “If (the pro-U.S. and independent) Democratic Progressive Party candidate wins, China’s pressure (on TSMC) could be stronger, and if (the pro-China) Kuomintang candidate wins, (TSMC) could be relatively excluded from the global supply chain realignment of semiconductors.”
Some analysts say that this will soon serve as an opportunity for the Korean and U.S. semiconductor industries. Professor Koo emphasized, “If TSMC is excluded from the supply chain of the global semiconductor market, it could create new opportunities for our semiconductor industry.” Currently, TSMC and Samsung Electronics are the only foundry companies in the world that have technology that can produce high-end semiconductors such as artificial intelligence (AI) chips. If TSMC is excluded from the supply chain of the global semiconductor market, Samsung Electronics will be able to bring some share. “Even if that doesn’t happen (the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party strengthens TSMC’s status), we need to strengthen our competitiveness by forming a win-win structure.” In addition, ahead of the Taiwan election, which is evaluated as a proxy war between the U.S. and China, interest in voting is fiercer than ever, leading to a “return-home vote” procession. Professor Koo said, “The family of a close acquaintance in Taiwan moved to Japan a long time ago, but the couple returned home this week to vote.”
“The number of Taiwanese citizens staying abroad accounts for more than 5 percent of the voters, so China is trying to influence the election through them in many ways,” he said. “There are no early or electronic voting in Taiwan elections, so Taiwanese citizens must return home in person to vote, but we are encouraging overseas Koreans to return home by promoting them on the Internet and so on.” There is also a rebellion by Underdog (a team or player with less chance of winning the match) in Taiwan. There is an atmosphere in which Ku Won-jeo (64), the third candidate of the Taiwanese People’s Party, is winning the support of people in their 20s and 30s who are dissatisfied with the reality, struggling with low wages and high rent. “Students in our class (who are taking classes in Taiwan) are showing great interest in elections unlike usual,” Professor Koo said. “The Democratic Party and the People’s Party both hate it and support the People’s Party’s candidate Ku Won-jeo, who is proposing a third alternative.”
Amid mounting dissatisfaction with the polarized politics centered on the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang in Taiwan, another option is emerging, not the two parties. In fact, you can see the rise of candidate Ker Won-jeo around social media, and even in his 60s, he is sympathized with young Taiwanese people with his skillful handling of SNS and humorous tone. Hong Kong Free Press (HKFP) reported, “Ker Won-jeo of the second opposition People’s Party, who has become a doctor-turned-politician, is trailing the candidates of both parties in the opinion poll, but he is a clear leader in SNS.”
SOPHIA KIM
ASIA JOURNAL
