With the U.S. presidential election, which will be held on November 5 next year, the prospect of a re-conveling between President Joe Biden (81) and former President Donald Trump (77) prevails.
President Biden has had the lowest approval rating among all-time presidents as his aging risk has fatigued inflation and the aftermath of the recent war between Israel and Hamas. On the other hand, former President Trump is narrowly ahead of President Biden despite various judicial risks, and there is a growing sense of vigilance that U.S. politics and the international community should prepare for the second term of Trump.
On the 5th (local time), a recent poll by Five Thirty-Ait, an election analyst firm, found that President Biden’s state-of-the-art approval rating was only 39.3%. In a Gallup survey released on the 26th of last month, President Biden’s state approval rating has fallen to 37%, at an all-time low. As of the 1000th day since taking office, it is the lowest approval rating after former President Jimmy Carter (33.0%) who served from 1977 to 1981.
First of all, there are economic problems against the backdrop of Biden’s decline in popularity. Former President Carter also ran out in popularity due to the U.S. economic recession in the late 1970s. The economic growth rate in the third quarter has been booming at 4.9% per annum, but the people’s fatigue has increased considerably due to the inflation that has become a chronic disease for more than two years. While inflation has dropped from its peak of 9.1% to 3.7%, there are many complaints that prices that you feel with your skin are still overwhelming.
In particular, international oil price instability has stimulated inflation due to low growth and high interest rates, and concerns about stagflation are rising. Biden’s economic policy and its approval rating for dealing with inflation are below half.
Here, a firm expression of support for Israel is leading to a departure from the base. Amid rising anti-Sedism, backlash has grown among young Democratic voters, and Muslims and Arab Americans in the United States are also feeling betrayed against President Biden. Gallup, a U.S. polling and consulting firm, analyzed that “President Biden’s resolute support for Israel is emerging as a departure from some of its supporters.”
The chronic aging risk is also one of the main variables. Reuters and Ipso’ poll last September found that Biden is too old to hold the presidency.
Former President Trump, on the other hand, is a strong Republican and overtakes President Biden’s approval rating. A poll conducted by Harvard’s American Political Institute in mid- last month found that Biden’s approval rating was 41% and former President Trump’s approval rating was 46%. The approval ratings surveyed by Bloomberg earlier last month also showed 43% and 47%, respectively. Although there are four criminal charges, including leaking confidential documents and attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, there is a judicial risk, but it has the effect of rallying supporters.
It is pointed out that U.S. politics and the international community should take measures with Trump’s return in mind. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently said that “there are growing voices that Trump should be prepared for the possibility of returning to stop supporting Ukraine or reversing President Biden’s energy and carbon neutrality policies by 180 degrees.
The trend of Americans supporting a third person in the most unfavorable presidential election ever is also getting stronger. The approval rating of Robert Kennedy Jr., who emerged as an independent from the Democratic primary, is moving around 20%. A former environmental lawyer, he has gained support from young people and nonpartisans who are members of the ‘political’ Kennedy family and a major supporter of the Democratic Party.
EJ SONG
US ASIA JOURNAL
