South Korea has already overtaken Russia as the country’s top exporter of weapons in Southeast Asia, amid the expected decline of Russian weapons in the global arms market as Russian troops struggled in the invasion of Ukraine.
The global market share of Russian weapons for five years between 2017 and 2021 was only 19%, down 5 percentage points from the previous five years, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Not only its market share but also its export volume has decreased by a quarter due to a drop in demand from its major customers, India and Vietnam.
This downward trend in Russia’s military industry is expected to become steeper after the Ukrainian war.
As the Russian military struggles in the Ukrainian war, doubts arise about the reliability of Russian weapons, and the production capacity and overseas supply capacity of the Russian military industry are likely to be limited due to U.S. and European sanctions.
“Russia does not have the technological base and economy to develop various weapons,” said Jimon Wezman of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Experts point out that Southeast Asia, in particular, is a useful case study to observe Russia’s decline.
In fact, between 2017 and 2021, Korean weapons accounted for 18% of Southeast Asia’s weapons imports, surpassing Russia, which was the traditional No. 1 supplier.
During this period, South Korea sold light attack aircraft, trainer jets, and suspicious ships to the Philippines and Thailand, and submarines to Indonesia.
On the other hand, Russia had a setback in exports last year, with Indonesia canceling its plan to purchase 11 Russian fighter jets.
Southeast Asian countries are also increasing their purchases of U.S. weapons.
This is due to expectations that the U.S. will provide military and diplomatic support to counter pressure from China along with the introduction of U.S. weapons.
“Russia will aggressively market to Southeast Asian countries, but fewer countries will buy Russian weapons,” said John Parachini of the Rand Institute in the U.S. The exception is Myanmar.
Myanmar is reportedly hoping to buy Russian weapons because of U.S. and Western sanctions. But it is questionable whether Russia is capable of supplying arms to Myanmar because of the Ukrainian war.
Vietnam also introduces many Russian weapons because of their compatibility with Soviet-made weapons. Recently, however, there has been a movement to escape Russia’s dependence on weapons.
If Russia’s weapons supply capacity is limited due to the Ukrainian war, Vietnam’s diversification of weapons suppliers is increasingly likely to gain strength.
JULIE KIM
ASIA JOURNAL
